The release of M1 The processor is a milestone. Apple finally switched the Mac to its fast, low-power mobile processors, and the results were incredible. They were hard to follow–and after about a year and a half, the M2 processor arrived with an (unexpected) set of incremental additions.
You can’t reinvent the wheel every time, and the M2 is clearly a careful follow-on to the M1, designed to keep the ball rolling. But there are now many reports that M3 is coming–not at the end of the year or in early 2024, as you might expect from the 18-month gap between M1 and M2, but as soon as possiblemaybe late spring or early summer.
Surprise! It turns out that Apple may be more aggressive with its Mac processing masterplan than we guessed from the first two years of Apple silicon.
Back to the chip cycle
The first two generations of Apple silicon Mac chips were follow-ons from the iPhone chips of a previous generation. M1 is based on A14, and M2 is based on A15. Apple releases a new iPhone chip every year but it hasn’t done so in the M series… so far.
However, there is evidence to suggest that Apple doesn’t really want it this way. The M2 made its debut in MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro in June, but multiple reports from well-sourced reporters like Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggested that the M2 MacBook Air was initially scheduled for late 2021 or very early 2022. If that’s true, Apple’s original plan will ship the first M2 Mac about a year after the first M1 models. It didn’t work out, but intent is important when we’re trying to predict what will happen next.
M3 as in nanometers
Apple’s chip supplier, TSMC, has been moving toward a new 3-nanometer chip process for some time now. The A14 is built on a 5nm process and the A15 on a newer process that Apple calls 4nm, but many chip nerds say that Really Still 5nm. Meanwhile, the 3nm process (when it arrives) has already been reported fully purchased by Apple for use in all its chips.
(If you’re not a chip engineer, what you need to know is that smaller processes provide many benefits, both in terms of reduced power consumption and increased potential chip speed. Smaller is better.)
While it has long been assumed that Apple’s first 3nm chip will be in the iPhone this fall, the M3 chip has reportedly been built into the process. This means that, unlike the last two cycles, this time the Mac will do it you go first with new chip technology–leading to the iPhone. It also suggests that the M3 could skip last fall’s A16 processor and share more of its makeup with the upcoming A17 chip.
Apple
All of this suggests that while the first couple of rounds of the Apple silicon cycle suggested that Apple’s strategy was “let’s get an A chip and now make an M chip,” the roadmap of the Apple’s chip development may be more fluid than that. If the M3 chip is built on the 3nm process, that’s a step ahead of the iPhone. Will it also have the same CPU and GPU cores as the A17? Given how little the A16 is an upgrade over the A15, maybe it is. But this is not a guarantee.
Beginning of a new cycle
Bloomberg’s gourmet strongly suggested this week it’s Apple like the Mac chip cycle is annual, like the iPhone cycle. I’m not sure if we have much evidence to support that yet, but it certainly makes sense for Apple to keep the M and A series in lockstep now that Apple has nearly completed its Mac chip transition.
But if Apple doing move to an annual chip update cycle for the Mac, I don’t expect every new Mac model to get an annual update to the new chip. In fact, we have already seen hints of this, as the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro received both M1 and M2 versions, but the iMac and Mac Studio were only available with the M1.
A pattern is slowly emerging: Perhaps Apple’s laptops, which probably make up at least three-quarters of Mac sales, will continue to be updated on an annual basis, with each new chip generation . Desktop Macs, on the other hand, can only be updated every other year–Gurman reports that a new 24-inch iMac model is coming this fall with an M3 processor inside that’s tolerable. Consider that the Mac mini and Mac Pro get an update in odd years, with the Mac Studio and iMac updated in even years.
We’ve seen Apple decide to put its desktop Macs on longer cycles than its MacBooks.
foundry
Of course, until the M3 officially arrives, we’ll have no idea if these reports are accurate. And delays happen–whether they’re due to larger supply-chain issues (which really dogged the Mac last year) or even TSMC delays in getting their new chip processes up and running. But for now, it certainly looks like Apple will be more aggressive with the speed of its Mac chip updates, and that’s good news for Mac users.